467 Commits

This Branch

This Branch

All Branches

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
Celes Renata	32d290bea7	fix: ruff lint — sort imports, remove unused GateThresholdResult import	2026-05-01 03:08:21 +00:00
Celes Renata	7fcc8a6c07	feat: model validation, calibration, and signal quality layer ... - Migration 035: prediction_snapshots, prediction_outcomes, signal_evidence_links, model_metric_snapshots tables + SQL views - Prediction snapshot writer with canonical evidence keys, duplicate detection, contribution scores - Outcome evaluator across 5 horizons (1h, 6h, 1d, 7d, 30d) - Metrics engine: ECE, Brier score, IC, Rank IC, benchmark comparison - Attribution engine: per-source, per-catalyst, per-layer performance - Calibration engine: Bayesian shrinkage source reliability - Quality gate for live trading eligibility with configurable thresholds - 7 new /api/validation/* endpoints - Upgraded OpsModel dashboard with validation tab - Enhanced recommendation display with calibration context - Backtest replay validation mode - 86 Python tests (unit + property-based), 179 frontend tests passing	2026-05-01 03:04:58 +00:00
Celes Renata	5d2ffd9163	fix: vertical market markers need yAxisId + move legend below date labels ... - Add yAxisId='left' to vertical ReferenceLine (required by Recharts) - Increase bottom margin from 40 to 70 for date label + legend space - Legend uses verticalAlign='bottom' with 24px top padding	2026-04-30 23:31:55 +00:00
Celes Renata	6169efdc89	fix: copy scripts/ into Docker image + graceful backfill fallback ... - Dockerfile now copies scripts/ directory into /app/scripts/ - Init container uses sh -c with fallback so missing script doesn't crash the pod (graceful degradation until image rebuilds)	2026-04-30 23:18:43 +00:00
Celes Renata	c42f2223d8	fix: move backfill logic to standalone script (fixes YAML parse error) ... Inline Python with f-strings and colons broke Helm YAML parsing. Moved to scripts/backfill_market_data.py and call it directly from the init container command.	2026-04-30 23:01:20 +00:00
Celes Renata	1f08820f11	feat: fullscreen chart expand + market open/close vertical markers ... - Click 'Expand' button to view the trend chart fullscreen - Press Escape or click outside to close - Fullscreen uses full viewport height for better readability - Green dashed vertical lines at 9:30 AM ET (market open) - Red dashed vertical lines at 4:00 PM ET (market close) - Markers only shown on intraday and 1d windows (hidden on 7d+) - Chart content extracted into shared function to avoid duplication	2026-04-30 22:44:00 +00:00
Celes Renata	2f2ea65fb4	fix: keep Alpaca price as primary (includes after-hours), add polygon_price field ... Alpaca's current_price reflects extended hours trading which is more current than Polygon's regular session close. Keep it as the display price. Add polygon_price as a reference field in the API response.	2026-04-30 22:35:22 +00:00
Celes Renata	9a60ce127b	fix: overlay Polygon prices on positions instead of stale Alpaca prices ... Alpaca paper trading returns inaccurate current_price values. The positions endpoint now uses the latest Polygon close from market_snapshots and recomputes unrealized P&L from that.	2026-04-30 22:32:21 +00:00
Celes Renata	414f476620	fix: auto-backfill market data on startup + fix trading dedup bug ... 1. Add backfill-market-data init container to scheduler deployment. On vanilla start (< 50 bars in market_snapshots), fetches 90 days of daily OHLCV from Polygon directly via asyncpg + httpx. 2. Fix trading engine dedup key placement. Previously the Redis dedup key was set BEFORE evaluate_recommendation(), so recs skipped as outside_trading_window were permanently deduped and never retried when the market opened. Now the dedup key is only set AFTER the decision for non-retryable outcomes (act, confidence_too_low, etc). outside_trading_window skips are retryable.	2026-04-30 14:08:54 +00:00
Celes Renata	a5f2bcde55	fix: set MARKET_DATA_BASE_URL to polygon in base values.yaml	2026-04-30 07:20:13 +00:00
Celes Renata	34ffdad00c	fix: wait for scheduler migrations after factory reset scale-up ... After scale_up, restart the scheduler and wait for it to be ready before other services start. The scheduler's init containers run migrations, so this ensures tables exist before ingestion/extractor pods try to query them.	2026-04-30 07:01:01 +00:00
Celes Renata	601b85764b	fix: mount stonks-market-secrets on query-api for backfill endpoint	2026-04-30 06:33:26 +00:00
Celes Renata	51b6f3d34a	ci: trigger rebuild	2026-04-30 06:24:05 +00:00
Celes Renata	bddaf44ffc	feat: 90-day price range Y-axis scaling with breakthrough annotations ... Backend: - GET /api/market/prices/{ticker} now returns { bars, range_90d } with 90-day low/high computed from market_snapshots - POST /api/market/backfill/{ticker} fetches 90 days of daily bars from Polygon and inserts missing bars into market_snapshots - POST /api/market/backfill-all does the same for all active tickers Frontend: - Right Y-axis domain scaled to 90-day min/max (with 3% padding) - Green dashed reference line at 90-day high - Red dashed reference line at 90-day low - Labels show exact price on each reference line - Default limit bumped to 200 bars	2026-04-30 06:09:05 +00:00
Celes Renata	5209cc522e	feat: enhanced paper trading reset with capital and reserve controls ... - Add initial capital input (toggle between broker balance or custom amount) - Add reserve/active pool split slider (0-50%, default 20%) - Backend accepts reserve_pct in reset request body - Note in UI that Alpaca balance reset requires Alpaca dashboard - Confirmation dialog shows exact capital and split being applied	2026-04-30 05:49:38 +00:00
Celes Renata	fa18b1a7c2	fix: populate broker and market API secrets in base values.yaml ... ArgoCD was syncing empty secrets back over manual patches. Credentials now match stonks-paper (same Alpaca paper + Polygon keys).	2026-04-30 05:05:43 +00:00
Celes Renata	4b254adad2	fix: scale ingestion and extractor to 1 replica in prod	2026-04-30 05:04:20 +00:00
Celes Renata	af2e554edd	fix: switch ai_agents seed from vllm to ollama qwen3.5:9b-fast ... Live DB already updated via direct SQL. This ensures future DB rebuilds and new deployments use ollama as the default provider.	2026-04-30 04:46:04 +00:00
Celes Renata	facce5dbb5	fix: add TTL and backoffLimit to market-hours-check jobs ... Prevents accumulation of completed/failed verification jobs. - ttlSecondsAfterFinished: 3600 (auto-cleanup after 1h) - backoffLimit: 0 (no retries on intentional market-hours failure)	2026-04-30 04:33:50 +00:00
Celes Renata	2f2c0d24f6	fix: remove unused columns constant (TS6133) v0.1.0	2026-04-30 03:21:32 +00:00
Celes Renata	861423c1e3	feat: make ticker clickable on positions page — links to company detail ... Ticker column now links to /companies/{id} using a ticker→company ID lookup. Falls back to plain text if company not found.	2026-04-30 03:15:22 +00:00
Celes Renata	13f863ef30	feat: fetch 15-minute bars instead of hourly for intraday prices ... Changed intraday_bars default from 1-hour bars to 15-minute bars. This gives ~26 price points per trading day per ticker (6.5h market × 4 bars/hour) instead of ~7 hourly bars. Limit raised to 100 to accommodate the higher bar count.	2026-04-29 23:01:11 +00:00
Celes Renata	2538da3f1e	fix: switch market data sources from prev_bars to intraday_bars ... The market_api sources were configured with endpoint='prev_bars' which only fetches a single previous-day bar per ticker. Changed to 'intraday_bars' which fetches hourly bars for today from Polygon's /v2/aggs/ticker/{ticker}/range/1/hour/{today}/{today} endpoint. Updated: seed script, beta DB (50 sources), production DB (50 sources). This gives ~7-8 hourly price bars per trading day per ticker instead of 1 daily bar.	2026-04-29 22:07:47 +00:00
Celes Renata	fa4ad6b15a	fix: widen price matching tolerance for sparse market data ... Only ~9 price bars per ticker (Polygon returns daily bars, not intraday). Widened gap tolerance to 6h for intraday, 12h for 1d, etc. Also skip time-range filtering when price data is sparse (≤20 bars) to avoid showing no prices at all.	2026-04-29 22:02:23 +00:00
Celes Renata	5109c85a3e	fix: remove unused 'hour' variable (TS6133)	2026-04-29 21:48:18 +00:00
Celes Renata	9975c2098b	fix: limit X-axis to 8 ticks with date bold + time at angle ... Was showing every data point timestamp. Now: - Recharts generates max 8 evenly-spaced ticks - Each tick shows 'Apr 29' in bold white + '2 PM' in gray - All labels at -35° angle to avoid overlap - Simplified tick component (no hour-boundary filtering needed)	2026-04-29 21:43:44 +00:00
Celes Renata	e976363259	ci: retrigger build	2026-04-29 21:34:34 +00:00
Celes Renata	b6e2718007	feat: proper time-based X-axis with angled hour labels and bold dates ... Replaced string-based X-axis with numeric timestamp axis: - Custom ChartXTick component renders hour marks at -35° angle - New day boundaries shown in bold (e.g., 'Apr 29') - Hour marks shown as '9:00 AM', '10:00 AM' etc. - Tooltip shows full date+time on hover - Direction timeline uses formatted timestamps - Bottom margin increased to accommodate angled labels	2026-04-29 21:26:11 +00:00
Celes Renata	cb3eb230d6	fix: fetch trend history per-window and run aggregation 24/7 ... Two fixes for missing intraday data: 1. Frontend: lifted selectedWindow state to page level so useTrendHistory passes window param to the API. Previously fetched all windows with limit=500 which exhausted the limit before reaching recent intraday data. Now fetches only the selected window's data. 2. Scheduler: removed market-hours-only restriction from periodic aggregation. Runs every 15 minutes 24/7 so intraday data is always populated for backtesting regardless of market state.	2026-04-29 21:11:46 +00:00
Celes Renata	963a5c462c	feat: syntax-highlight decision trace JSON on order detail page ... Add lightweight JSON highlighter for the decision trace panel: - Keys: cyan - Strings: green - Numbers: yellow - Booleans: purple - Null: red - Structural chars: gray SQL explorer already uses Monaco with SQL highlighting — no changes needed there.	2026-04-29 19:33:24 +00:00
Celes Renata	82892b7a3e	feat: multi-distro support in deploy-docker.sh ... Step 0 now detects the OS and package manager, supporting: - Debian/Ubuntu (apt) - RHEL/Rocky/Fedora/CentOS (dnf/yum) - Arch Linux (pacman) - openSUSE (zypper) - WSL (uses host Windows NVIDIA driver, skips driver install) Handles Docker CE install, NVIDIA driver, NVIDIA Container Toolkit, and firewall (firewalld + ufw) across all supported distros.	2026-04-29 18:59:40 +00:00
Celes Renata	6f54fd07fa	feat: periodic aggregation every 15 minutes during market hours ... The aggregation engine only ran when new documents were ingested, leaving intraday trend data stale for long periods. Now the scheduler enqueues all 50 tickers for re-aggregation every ~15 minutes during US market hours (Mon-Fri, 6:30 AM - 1:30 PM PT). This ensures continuous intraday trend updates based on existing signals and market price changes.	2026-04-29 18:27:49 +00:00
Celes Renata	99b7dcee98	fix: widen chart time windows for intraday (24h) and 1d (48h) ... Intraday was showing only 12h of data (9 sparse points). Widened to 24h to show a full day of intraday trend history. Also widened 1d from 24h to 48h for better context.	2026-04-29 18:15:54 +00:00
Celes Renata	4f7358f4e3	feat: show current position on company detail trends tab ... Displays an 'Open Position' card above the trend charts when we hold a position in that ticker. Shows shares, avg entry price, current price, market value, and unrealized P&L with green/red coloring. Card is hidden when no position exists for the ticker.	2026-04-29 18:06:37 +00:00
Celes Renata	0665cef7e3	fix: set TZ=America/Los_Angeles in Helm config for all pods ... Containers default to UTC. The host is PDT but pods don't inherit the host timezone. Adding TZ to the ConfigMap ensures all services log and compute timestamps in Pacific time.	2026-04-29 17:53:38 +00:00
Celes Renata	48eca672a9	docs: add TZ environment variable to Helm and Docker docs ... Document the TZ config option in both docker-deployment.md and helm-reference.md. Default is America/Los_Angeles. Frontend uses the browser's local timezone for display.	2026-04-29 17:50:59 +00:00
Celes Renata	f159b20c87	feat: show document title and link in competitive signals panel ... Replace raw UUID with a linked document title in both the collapsed row (using the empty space on the right) and the expanded detail view. Uses useDocument hook to fetch the title, falls back to truncated UUID while loading. Clicking the link navigates to the document detail page.	2026-04-29 17:29:26 +00:00
Celes Renata	97fe2249fe	fix: extract competitive_signals array from API response wrapper ... The /api/patterns/{ticker}/competitive-signals endpoint returns {competitive_signals: [...], count: N} but the hook was typed as returning a raw array. The component called .map() on the object, causing 'e.map is not a function'. Now extracts the array from the response wrapper.	2026-04-29 17:20:03 +00:00
Celes Renata	951b733ac3	fix: move cutoffTs declaration before its use in filtered ... Variable was used before declaration (temporal dead zone error). Moved windowHours/hoursBack/cutoffTs above the filtered const that references cutoffTs.	2026-04-29 17:08:36 +00:00
Celes Renata	531e33b0ce	fix: company charts X-axis now adjusts to selected window time range ... The trend history chart was showing all historical data regardless of which window was selected — only filtering by window name but not by time range. Now filters both trend data and price data to the time range matching the selected window (e.g., 7d shows last 7 days only, 30d shows last 30 days).	2026-04-29 16:59:23 +00:00
Celes Renata	24c753f6e6	fix: debounce ticker search on Trends page to preserve input focus ... The TickerFilter triggered a query on every keystroke, causing re-renders that stole focus from the input. Now uses a local input state with a 300ms debounce before updating the query, keeping focus on the text box while typing.	2026-04-29 16:54:19 +00:00
Celes Renata	6880f11c26	fix: add /no_think inline tag to disable Qwen3 thinking mode ... chat_template_kwargs isn't being respected by the vLLM deployment. Qwen3 models support /no_think as an inline suffix in the user message to disable thinking mode. This is the most reliable method across all serving backends (vLLM, Ollama, SGLang).	2026-04-29 16:11:44 +00:00
Celes Renata	eead4f1381	fix: disable thinking mode on vLLM path with chat_template_kwargs ... The thesis rewriter uses vLLM (not Ollama) in production. The previous fix only added think=False to the Ollama payload. For vLLM's OpenAI-compatible API with Qwen3 models, thinking mode is disabled via chat_template_kwargs: {enable_thinking: false} in the request body.	2026-04-29 16:04:04 +00:00
Celes Renata	007189c0a5	fix: handle plain-text thinking blocks and disable think mode ... The model outputs 'Thinking Process:' as plain text (not in <think> tags). Updated _strip_thinking_block to handle both XML tags and plain-text reasoning patterns. Also: - Added rule 7 to system prompt: 'Do NOT show your thinking process' - Set think=False in Ollama payload to disable Qwen3 thinking mode - Added fallback regex to extract thesis from after thinking blocks	2026-04-29 15:50:49 +00:00
Celes Renata	f9ee1532dc	fix: strip <think> reasoning blocks from thesis LLM output ... Qwen3.5 in thinking mode emits <think>...</think> chain-of-thought before the actual response. The thesis rewriter was returning the raw output including the entire reasoning block. Now strips thinking tags from both Ollama and vLLM response paths.	2026-04-29 15:25:04 +00:00
Celes Renata	ac29e62033	docs: update equations.md with probabilistic pipeline formulas ... Add sections 1B, 2B, 3B, 4B, 5B, 7B covering all new probabilistic formulas: sigmoid gate, info gain, adaptive decay, regime multiplier, source accuracy, Bayesian posterior, entropy direction, weighted disagreement entropy, multiplicative macro exposure, conditional macro integration, graph-distance attenuation, EW momentum, and EV gate. Updated constants summary with all new parameters.	2026-04-29 15:12:47 +00:00
Celes Renata	7eecd71a0d	ci: retry build (proxy timeout on previous run)	2026-04-29 12:08:15 +00:00
Celes Renata	bb40a3cb8e	fix: position sync now reconciles — removes positions broker no longer holds ... The sync_positions loop only upserted positions from Alpaca but never deleted DB rows for positions that were closed/liquidated on the broker side. After a paper reset, the next sync would not remove the stale positions because they simply weren't in Alpaca's response anymore. Now performs full reconciliation: after upserting what Alpaca reports, deletes any DB positions for the account that Alpaca no longer holds.	2026-04-29 12:02:57 +00:00
Celes Renata	4e010bc048	feat: signal math upgrade — probabilistic, regime-aware scoring pipeline ... Implement full probabilistic signal processing pipeline gated behind probabilistic_scoring_enabled feature flag in risk_configs: - Bayesian log-likelihood accumulator with Beta posterior and entropy - Regime detector (trend-following, panic, mean-reversion, uncertainty) - Source accuracy tracker with per-source historical prediction accuracy - Sigmoid confidence gate replacing binary gate - Information gain surprise weighting for rare events - Adaptive recency decay with event-specific half-lives - Regime multiplier replacing market context multiplier - Weighted disagreement entropy for contradiction detection - Multiplicative macro exposure with conditional integration - Graph-distance attenuated competitive signal propagation - Exponentially weighted momentum with volatility scaling - Expected value recommendation gate All changes backward-compatible: flag=false preserves exact current behavior. New outputs stored in existing JSONB columns (no schema changes except source_accuracy table via migration 034). Tests: 26 property-based tests (14 correctness properties), 99 unit tests, 1789 total tests passing with zero regressions.	2026-04-29 11:41:48 +00:00
Celes Renata	8c3c1aab43	fix: pipeline stop now halts all workers and flushes queues ... Workers (ingestion, parser, extractor, aggregation, recommendation, broker, lake-publisher) now check the pipeline:enabled Redis flag on each loop iteration and sleep when disabled. The toggle endpoint flushes all pipeline queues on disable so queued jobs don't resume when workers eventually check. Broker/trading queues are excluded from flush to avoid dropping in-flight orders.	2026-04-29 07:59:35 +00:00