Celes Renata 4e010bc048 feat: signal math upgrade — probabilistic, regime-aware scoring pipeline ...

Implement full probabilistic signal processing pipeline gated behind
probabilistic_scoring_enabled feature flag in risk_configs:

- Bayesian log-likelihood accumulator with Beta posterior and entropy
- Regime detector (trend-following, panic, mean-reversion, uncertainty)
- Source accuracy tracker with per-source historical prediction accuracy
- Sigmoid confidence gate replacing binary gate
- Information gain surprise weighting for rare events
- Adaptive recency decay with event-specific half-lives
- Regime multiplier replacing market context multiplier
- Weighted disagreement entropy for contradiction detection
- Multiplicative macro exposure with conditional integration
- Graph-distance attenuated competitive signal propagation
- Exponentially weighted momentum with volatility scaling
- Expected value recommendation gate

All changes backward-compatible: flag=false preserves exact current behavior.
New outputs stored in existing JSONB columns (no schema changes except
source_accuracy table via migration 034).

Tests: 26 property-based tests (14 correctness properties), 99 unit tests,
1789 total tests passing with zero regressions.

2026-04-29 11:41:48 +00:00

..

001_initial_schema.sql

phase 0+1: project scaffold, k8s manifests, CI pipeline, steering, hooks, tests

2026-04-11 03:25:08 -07:00

002_documents_and_intelligence.sql

phase 0+1: project scaffold, k8s manifests, CI pipeline, steering, hooks, tests

2026-04-11 03:25:08 -07:00

003_trends_recommendations_orders.sql

fix: risk engine command points to services.risk.app, redis password, window quoting

2026-04-11 14:15:47 -07:00

004_dedupe_indexes.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

005_parser_output_ref.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

006_model_performance_metrics.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

007_disagreement_details.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

008_trend_evidence.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

009_recommendation_persistence.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

010_risk_configuration.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

011_paper_trading_positions_unique.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

012_audit_trail_indexes.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

013_operator_approval_workflow.sql

phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment

2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00

014_retention_policies.sql

phase 16: custom superset image with trino driver, fix security context

2026-04-11 17:18:17 -07:00

015_saved_queries.sql

phase 16: React dashboard with full platform control and analytics

2026-04-11 16:19:46 -07:00

016_global_news_interpolation.sql

feat: competitive intelligence & historical pattern matching layer

2026-04-14 19:42:48 +00:00

017_competitive_historical_patterns.sql

feat: competitive intelligence & historical pattern matching layer

2026-04-14 19:42:48 +00:00

018_autonomous_trading_engine.sql

feat: add paper trading capital controls — API endpoint + UI with presets, fix status/metrics to read real state, fix migration duplicates

2026-04-16 14:06:30 +00:00

019_enable_paper_trading.sql

feat: upgrade paper trading to $100k moderate tier

2026-04-16 00:37:35 +00:00

020_grouped_daily_market_source.sql

feat: add Polygon grouped daily endpoint for broad market data

2026-04-15 22:38:18 +00:00

021_seed_saved_queries.sql

feat: add 11 new saved queries, fix window quoting and cross-table join in samples

2026-04-16 07:14:44 +00:00

022_round_float_overload.sql

fix: add round(double precision, integer) overload so ad-hoc queries work without ::numeric casts

2026-04-16 07:10:23 +00:00

023_trend_windows_upsert_and_cleanup.sql

fix: migrations preserve trend history across reinstalls

2026-04-17 01:15:28 +00:00

024_trend_history.sql

fix: migrations preserve trend history across reinstalls

2026-04-17 01:15:28 +00:00

025_intraday_market_source.sql

feat: intraday hourly price bars via Polygon range endpoint

2026-04-17 01:13:24 +00:00

026_ai_agents.sql

fix: ensure production uses DB-configured model/provider from UI

2026-04-29 04:33:21 +00:00

027_agent_variants.sql

feat: agent variants — migration, API, service integration, frontend, tests

2026-04-17 05:15:42 +00:00

028_backfill_recommendation_evidence.sql

fix: backfill recommendation evidence for existing recommendations

2026-04-17 07:37:14 +00:00

029_sync_agent_prompts.sql

fix: stop migrations from resetting ai_agents model_name, default to vllm/AxionML/Qwen3.5-9B-NVFP4

2026-04-28 18:58:13 +00:00

030_fix_trend_windows_id_default.sql

fix: trend_windows.id missing gen_random_uuid() default

2026-04-17 17:27:41 +00:00

031_fix_agent_defaults.sql

fix: reduce max_tokens to 2048 to fit 8192 context window

2026-04-29 06:18:26 +00:00

031_fix_max_tokens_default.sql

fix: beta trading pipeline — max_tokens default, approval re-enqueue, credentials

2026-04-28 14:13:58 +00:00

032_seed_default_risk_config.sql

feat: seed default risk_configs with macro and competitive layers enabled

2026-04-28 16:34:40 +00:00

033_stop_hardcoding_agent_model.sql

fix: stop migrations from resetting ai_agents model_name, default to vllm/AxionML/Qwen3.5-9B-NVFP4

2026-04-28 18:58:13 +00:00

034_source_accuracy.sql

feat: signal math upgrade — probabilistic, regime-aware scoring pipeline

2026-04-29 11:41:48 +00:00