feat: upgrade paper trading to $100k moderate tier

Paper money has no downside — bigger capital exposes more model
behavior: position sizing, diversification, sector exposure,
correlation checks, circuit breakers, reserve pool siphoning,
and risk tier auto-adjustment all become meaningful.

- risk_tier: conservative → moderate (min_confidence 0.55)
- absolute_position_cap: $25 → $10,000
- max_open_positions: 5 → 10
- initial portfolio value: $500 → $100,000
- Updated migration 019, Helm values, and engine default

infra/helm/stonks-oracle/values.yaml

@@ -209,9 +209,9 @@ config:
   ALERT_BROKER_ERROR_WINDOW_HOURS: "1"
   ALERT_CHECK_INTERVAL_SECONDS: "120"
   TRADING_ENABLED: "true"
-  TRADING_RISK_TIER: "conservative"
-  TRADING_ABSOLUTE_POSITION_CAP: "25.0"
-  TRADING_MAX_OPEN_POSITIONS: "5"
+  TRADING_RISK_TIER: "moderate"
+  TRADING_ABSOLUTE_POSITION_CAP: "10000.0"
+  TRADING_MAX_OPEN_POSITIONS: "10"
 
 ## Secrets
 secrets:

infra/migrations/019_enable_paper_trading.sql

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 -- Migration 019: Enable paper trading configuration
--- Sets conservative defaults for initial paper trading deployment.
+-- Sets moderate defaults for paper trading with $100k capital.
 -- Requirements: 16.1, 5.1
 
 UPDATE trading_engine_config
 SET enabled = true,
-    risk_tier = 'conservative',
-    absolute_position_cap = 25.0,
-    max_open_positions = 5;
+    risk_tier = 'moderate',
+    absolute_position_cap = 10000.0,
+    max_open_positions = 10;

services/trading/engine.py

@@ -552,10 +552,12 @@ class TradingEngine:
             logger.debug("Could not load circuit breaker state — using inactive")
 
         # Build portfolio state with defaults
+        # Default initial capital for paper trading — overridden by broker sync
+        initial_capital = 100000.0
         self.portfolio_state = PortfolioState(
             reserve_pool=reserve_balance,
-            active_pool=max(0.0, 500.0 - reserve_balance),
-            total_value=500.0,
+            active_pool=max(0.0, initial_capital - reserve_balance),
+            total_value=initial_capital,
         )
 
     async def _decision_loop(self) -> None: