Celes Renata
653 lines
21 KiB
Python
653 lines
21 KiB
Python
"""Aggregation worker - company-level rolling window trend summaries.
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Queries document intelligence and market context for a given ticker,
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computes weighted signal scores, and produces TrendSummary objects
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persisted to the trend_windows table.
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Requirements: 6.1, 6.2, 6.5
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import json
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import logging
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import time
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from dataclasses import dataclass
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
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from typing import Any
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import asyncpg
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from services.aggregation.contradiction import CatalystEntry, detect_contradictions
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from services.aggregation.evidence import (
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EvidenceRankConfig,
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RankedEvidence,
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rank_evidence_detailed,
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)
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from services.aggregation.evidence import (
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rank_evidence as _rank_evidence_composite,
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)
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from services.aggregation.market_context import fetch_market_context
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from services.aggregation.scoring import (
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ScoringConfig,
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WeightedSignal,
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compute_signal_weight,
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sentiment_to_numeric,
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weighted_sentiment_average,
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)
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from services.shared.metrics import (
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AGGREGATION_CONTRADICTION_SCORE,
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AGGREGATION_DURATION,
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AGGREGATION_SIGNALS_PROCESSED,
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AGGREGATION_WINDOWS_COMPUTED,
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)
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from services.shared.schemas import TrendDirection, TrendSummary, TrendWindow
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logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
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# Map TrendWindow values to lookback durations.
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WINDOW_DURATIONS: dict[str, timedelta] = {
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TrendWindow.INTRADAY.value: timedelta(hours=12),
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TrendWindow.ONE_DAY.value: timedelta(days=1),
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TrendWindow.SEVEN_DAY.value: timedelta(days=7),
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TrendWindow.THIRTY_DAY.value: timedelta(days=30),
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TrendWindow.NINETY_DAY.value: timedelta(days=90),
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}
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# How many evidence document IDs to keep in supporting/opposing lists.
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MAX_EVIDENCE_REFS = 10
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@dataclass
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class AggregationConfig:
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"""Controls which windows to compute and scoring parameters."""
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windows: list[str] | None = None # None = all windows
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scoring: ScoringConfig | None = None
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max_evidence: int = MAX_EVIDENCE_REFS
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def effective_windows(self) -> list[str]:
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if self.windows:
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return self.windows
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return [w.value for w in TrendWindow]
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def effective_scoring(self) -> ScoringConfig:
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return self.scoring or ScoringConfig()
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Fetch impact records for a ticker within a time window
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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_IMPACT_QUERY = """
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SELECT
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di.document_id,
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di.confidence,
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di.novelty_score,
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di.source_credibility,
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dir.sentiment,
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dir.impact_score,
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dir.catalyst_type,
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dir.key_facts,
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dir.risks,
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d.published_at
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FROM document_impact_records dir
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JOIN document_intelligence di ON di.id = dir.intelligence_id
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JOIN documents d ON d.id = di.document_id
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WHERE dir.ticker = $1
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AND d.published_at >= $2
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AND d.published_at <= $3
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AND di.validation_status = 'valid'
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AND d.status != 'rejected'
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ORDER BY d.published_at DESC
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"""
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@dataclass
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class ImpactRow:
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"""Parsed row from the impact query."""
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document_id: str
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confidence: float
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novelty_score: float
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source_credibility: float
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sentiment: str
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impact_score: float
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catalyst_type: str
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key_facts: list[str]
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risks: list[str]
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published_at: datetime
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def _parse_impact_row(row: Any) -> ImpactRow:
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"""Convert an asyncpg Record to an ImpactRow."""
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key_facts = row["key_facts"]
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if isinstance(key_facts, str):
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key_facts = json.loads(key_facts)
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risks = row["risks"]
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if isinstance(risks, str):
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risks = json.loads(risks)
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return ImpactRow(
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document_id=str(row["document_id"]),
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confidence=float(row["confidence"] or 0.5),
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novelty_score=float(row["novelty_score"] or 0.5),
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source_credibility=float(row["source_credibility"] or 0.5),
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sentiment=row["sentiment"] or "neutral",
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impact_score=float(row["impact_score"] or 0.0),
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catalyst_type=row["catalyst_type"] or "other",
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key_facts=key_facts if isinstance(key_facts, list) else [],
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risks=risks if isinstance(risks, list) else [],
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published_at=row["published_at"],
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)
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async def fetch_impact_records(
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pool: asyncpg.Pool,
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ticker: str,
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window_start: datetime,
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window_end: datetime,
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) -> list[ImpactRow]:
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"""Fetch validated document impact records for a ticker in a time range."""
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rows = await pool.fetch(_IMPACT_QUERY, ticker, window_start, window_end)
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return [_parse_impact_row(r) for r in rows]
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Build weighted signals from impact records
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def build_weighted_signals(
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impacts: list[ImpactRow],
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reference_time: datetime,
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window: str,
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market_ctx: Any | None = None,
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config: ScoringConfig | None = None,
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) -> list[WeightedSignal]:
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"""Convert impact records into WeightedSignal objects using the scoring module."""
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cfg = config or ScoringConfig()
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signals: list[WeightedSignal] = []
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for imp in impacts:
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sw = compute_signal_weight(
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published_at=imp.published_at,
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reference_time=reference_time,
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window=window,
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source_credibility=imp.source_credibility,
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novelty_score=imp.novelty_score,
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extraction_confidence=imp.confidence,
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market_ctx=market_ctx,
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config=cfg,
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)
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signals.append(
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WeightedSignal(
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document_id=imp.document_id,
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weight=sw,
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sentiment_value=sentiment_to_numeric(imp.sentiment),
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impact_score=imp.impact_score,
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)
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)
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return signals
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Derive trend direction from weighted sentiment
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Thresholds for mapping numeric sentiment to direction.
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BULLISH_THRESHOLD = 0.15
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BEARISH_THRESHOLD = -0.15
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MIXED_THRESHOLD = 0.10 # contradiction score above this → mixed
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def derive_trend_direction(
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avg_sentiment: float,
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contradiction_score: float = 0.0,
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) -> TrendDirection:
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"""Map a weighted average sentiment to a TrendDirection.
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If contradiction is high, the direction is MIXED regardless of
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the average sentiment value.
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"""
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if contradiction_score > MIXED_THRESHOLD and abs(avg_sentiment) < 0.3:
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return TrendDirection.MIXED
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if avg_sentiment >= BULLISH_THRESHOLD:
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return TrendDirection.BULLISH
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if avg_sentiment <= BEARISH_THRESHOLD:
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return TrendDirection.BEARISH
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return TrendDirection.NEUTRAL
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Compute contradiction score
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def compute_contradiction_score(signals: list[WeightedSignal]) -> float:
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"""Measure how much disagreement exists among weighted signals.
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Returns a value in [0, 1] where 0 means full agreement and 1 means
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equal-weight positive and negative signals.
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The formula computes the ratio of the minority-side total weight to
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the majority-side total weight.
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"""
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if not signals:
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return 0.0
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pos_weight = 0.0
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neg_weight = 0.0
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for sig in signals:
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w = sig.weight.combined * sig.impact_score
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if sig.sentiment_value > 0:
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pos_weight += w
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elif sig.sentiment_value < 0:
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neg_weight += w
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total = pos_weight + neg_weight
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if total == 0.0:
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return 0.0
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minority = min(pos_weight, neg_weight)
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return round(minority / total, 4)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Rank evidence (supporting vs opposing)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def rank_evidence(
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signals: list[WeightedSignal],
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max_refs: int = MAX_EVIDENCE_REFS,
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) -> tuple[list[str], list[str]]:
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"""Return top supporting and opposing document IDs ranked by composite score.
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Delegates to the evidence ranking module which considers multiple
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factors (weight, impact, recency, confidence) rather than raw weight alone.
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Supporting = positive sentiment, Opposing = negative sentiment.
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Neutral/mixed signals are excluded from evidence lists.
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"""
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config = EvidenceRankConfig(max_refs=max_refs)
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return _rank_evidence_composite(signals, config)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Extract dominant catalysts and material risks
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def extract_catalysts_and_risks(
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impacts: list[ImpactRow],
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signals: list[WeightedSignal],
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) -> tuple[list[str], list[str]]:
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"""Return dominant catalyst types and material risks weighted by signal strength.
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Catalysts are ranked by cumulative weight. Risks are deduplicated and
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ordered by the weight of the signal that surfaced them.
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"""
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catalyst_weights: dict[str, float] = {}
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risk_entries: list[tuple[float, str]] = []
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# Build a lookup from document_id to combined weight
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weight_by_doc = {s.document_id: s.weight.combined * s.impact_score for s in signals}
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for imp in impacts:
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w = weight_by_doc.get(imp.document_id, 0.0)
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if w <= 0.0:
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continue
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catalyst_weights[imp.catalyst_type] = catalyst_weights.get(imp.catalyst_type, 0.0) + w
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for risk in imp.risks:
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risk_entries.append((w, risk))
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# Top catalysts by cumulative weight
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sorted_catalysts = sorted(catalyst_weights.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
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catalysts = [cat for cat, _ in sorted_catalysts[:5]]
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# Deduplicated risks ordered by weight
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seen_risks: set[str] = set()
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risks: list[str] = []
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risk_entries.sort(key=lambda x: x[0], reverse=True)
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for _, risk_text in risk_entries:
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normalized = risk_text.strip().lower()
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if normalized not in seen_risks:
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seen_risks.add(normalized)
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risks.append(risk_text.strip())
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if len(risks) >= 5:
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break
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return catalysts, risks
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Compute trend confidence
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def compute_trend_confidence(
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signals: list[WeightedSignal],
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contradiction_score: float,
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) -> float:
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"""Derive an overall confidence for the trend summary.
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Confidence is based on:
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- Number of contributing signals (more = higher base)
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- Average extraction confidence of contributing signals
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- Contradiction penalty (high contradiction lowers confidence)
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Returns a value in [0, 1].
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"""
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if not signals:
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return 0.0
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active = [s for s in signals if s.weight.combined > 0]
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if not active:
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return 0.0
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# Base confidence from signal count (diminishing returns)
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count_factor = min(len(active) / 20.0, 1.0)
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# Average extraction confidence (from the confidence_gate — if gated,
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# the signal wouldn't be in active list, so we use the raw confidence
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# from the weight breakdown).
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avg_conf = sum(s.weight.credibility for s in active) / len(active)
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# Contradiction penalty
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contradiction_penalty = contradiction_score * 0.4
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confidence = (0.4 * count_factor + 0.6 * avg_conf) - contradiction_penalty
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return round(max(0.0, min(1.0, confidence)), 4)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Assemble a TrendSummary from components
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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@dataclass
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class AssembledTrend:
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"""A trend summary paired with its detailed evidence rankings."""
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summary: TrendSummary
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supporting_evidence: list[RankedEvidence]
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opposing_evidence: list[RankedEvidence]
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def assemble_trend_summary(
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ticker: str,
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window: str,
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signals: list[WeightedSignal],
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impacts: list[ImpactRow],
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market_ctx: Any | None = None,
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max_evidence: int = MAX_EVIDENCE_REFS,
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reference_time: datetime | None = None,
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) -> TrendSummary:
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"""Build a complete TrendSummary from weighted signals and impact records."""
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result = assemble_trend_with_evidence(
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ticker, window, signals, impacts, market_ctx, max_evidence, reference_time,
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)
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return result.summary
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def assemble_trend_with_evidence(
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ticker: str,
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window: str,
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signals: list[WeightedSignal],
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impacts: list[ImpactRow],
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market_ctx: Any | None = None,
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max_evidence: int = MAX_EVIDENCE_REFS,
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reference_time: datetime | None = None,
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) -> AssembledTrend:
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"""Build a TrendSummary and return detailed evidence rankings for persistence."""
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if reference_time is None:
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reference_time = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
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avg_sentiment = weighted_sentiment_average(signals)
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# Run full contradiction detection (Requirement 6.4)
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catalyst_entries = [
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CatalystEntry(document_id=imp.document_id, catalyst_type=imp.catalyst_type)
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for imp in impacts
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]
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contradiction_result = detect_contradictions(signals, catalyst_entries)
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contradiction = contradiction_result.score
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direction = derive_trend_direction(avg_sentiment, contradiction)
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confidence = compute_trend_confidence(signals, contradiction)
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# Get detailed evidence rankings for persistence
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config = EvidenceRankConfig(max_refs=max_evidence)
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supporting_ranked, opposing_ranked = rank_evidence_detailed(signals, config)
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supporting = [r.document_id for r in supporting_ranked]
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opposing = [r.document_id for r in opposing_ranked]
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catalysts, risks = extract_catalysts_and_risks(impacts, signals)
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# Trend strength: absolute value of weighted sentiment, clamped to [0, 1]
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strength = round(min(abs(avg_sentiment), 1.0), 4)
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summary = TrendSummary(
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entity_type="company",
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entity_id=ticker,
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window=TrendWindow(window),
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trend_direction=direction,
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trend_strength=strength,
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confidence=confidence,
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top_supporting_evidence=supporting,
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top_opposing_evidence=opposing,
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dominant_catalysts=catalysts,
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material_risks=risks,
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contradiction_score=contradiction,
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disagreement_details=contradiction_result.details,
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market_context=market_ctx,
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generated_at=reference_time,
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)
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return AssembledTrend(
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summary=summary,
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supporting_evidence=supporting_ranked,
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opposing_evidence=opposing_ranked,
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)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Persist trend summary to PostgreSQL
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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_UPSERT_TREND = """
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INSERT INTO trend_windows (
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entity_type, entity_id, window, trend_direction, trend_strength,
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confidence, top_supporting_evidence, top_opposing_evidence,
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dominant_catalysts, material_risks, contradiction_score,
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disagreement_details, market_context, generated_at
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) VALUES (
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$1, $2, $3, $4, $5,
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$6, $7::jsonb, $8::jsonb,
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$9::jsonb, $10::jsonb, $11,
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$12::jsonb, $13::jsonb, $14
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)
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RETURNING id
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"""
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async def persist_trend_summary(
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pool: asyncpg.Pool,
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summary: TrendSummary,
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) -> str:
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"""Insert a trend summary row and return its UUID."""
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row = await pool.fetchrow(
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_UPSERT_TREND,
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summary.entity_type,
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summary.entity_id,
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summary.window.value,
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summary.trend_direction.value,
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summary.trend_strength,
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summary.confidence,
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json.dumps(summary.top_supporting_evidence),
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json.dumps(summary.top_opposing_evidence),
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json.dumps(summary.dominant_catalysts),
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json.dumps(summary.material_risks),
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summary.contradiction_score,
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json.dumps([d.model_dump() for d in summary.disagreement_details]),
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json.dumps(summary.market_context.model_dump() if summary.market_context else {}, default=str),
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summary.generated_at,
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)
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return str(row["id"])
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Persist evidence mappings to trend_evidence table
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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_INSERT_EVIDENCE = """
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INSERT INTO trend_evidence (
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trend_window_id, document_id, evidence_type,
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rank_score, weight_component, impact_component,
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recency_component, confidence_component, sentiment_value
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) VALUES (
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$1, $2::uuid, $3,
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$4, $5, $6,
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$7, $8, $9
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)
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"""
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async def persist_trend_evidence(
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pool: asyncpg.Pool,
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trend_window_id: str,
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supporting: list[RankedEvidence],
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opposing: list[RankedEvidence],
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) -> int:
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"""Insert evidence mapping rows for a trend window. Returns count inserted."""
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rows: list[tuple[str, str, str, float, float, float, float, float, float]] = []
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for ev in supporting:
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rows.append((
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trend_window_id, ev.document_id, "supporting",
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ev.rank_score, ev.weight_component, ev.impact_component,
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ev.recency_component, ev.confidence_component, ev.sentiment_value,
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))
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for ev in opposing:
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rows.append((
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trend_window_id, ev.document_id, "opposing",
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ev.rank_score, ev.weight_component, ev.impact_component,
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|
ev.recency_component, ev.confidence_component, ev.sentiment_value,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
if not rows:
|
|
return 0
|
|
|
|
await pool.executemany(_INSERT_EVIDENCE, rows)
|
|
return len(rows)
|
|
|
|
|
|
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
# Main aggregation entry point for a single ticker + window
|
|
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
|
|
|
|
async def aggregate_company_window(
|
|
pool: asyncpg.Pool,
|
|
ticker: str,
|
|
window: str,
|
|
reference_time: datetime | None = None,
|
|
config: AggregationConfig | None = None,
|
|
) -> TrendSummary:
|
|
"""Compute and persist a trend summary for one ticker and one window.
|
|
|
|
Steps:
|
|
1. Determine the time range for the window.
|
|
2. Fetch document impact records from PostgreSQL.
|
|
3. Fetch market context for the ticker.
|
|
4. Build weighted signals using the scoring module.
|
|
5. Assemble the TrendSummary.
|
|
6. Persist to trend_windows table.
|
|
|
|
Returns the assembled TrendSummary.
|
|
"""
|
|
cfg = config or AggregationConfig()
|
|
scoring_cfg = cfg.effective_scoring()
|
|
|
|
if reference_time is None:
|
|
reference_time = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
|
|
|
|
_agg_start = time.monotonic()
|
|
duration = WINDOW_DURATIONS.get(window, timedelta(days=7))
|
|
window_start = reference_time - duration
|
|
|
|
# 1. Fetch impact records
|
|
impacts = await fetch_impact_records(pool, ticker, window_start, reference_time)
|
|
|
|
# 2. Fetch market context
|
|
market_ctx = await fetch_market_context(pool, ticker, window, reference_time)
|
|
|
|
# 3. Build weighted signals
|
|
signals = build_weighted_signals(
|
|
impacts, reference_time, window, market_ctx, scoring_cfg,
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
# 4. Assemble trend summary with evidence details
|
|
assembled = assemble_trend_with_evidence(
|
|
ticker=ticker,
|
|
window=window,
|
|
signals=signals,
|
|
impacts=impacts,
|
|
market_ctx=market_ctx if market_ctx.has_data else None,
|
|
max_evidence=cfg.max_evidence,
|
|
reference_time=reference_time,
|
|
)
|
|
summary = assembled.summary
|
|
|
|
# 5. Persist trend window
|
|
trend_id = await persist_trend_summary(pool, summary)
|
|
|
|
# 6. Persist evidence mappings
|
|
evidence_count = await persist_trend_evidence(
|
|
pool, trend_id,
|
|
assembled.supporting_evidence,
|
|
assembled.opposing_evidence,
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
logger.info(
|
|
"Persisted trend %s for %s/%s: direction=%s strength=%.3f confidence=%.3f signals=%d evidence=%d",
|
|
trend_id, ticker, window, summary.trend_direction.value,
|
|
summary.trend_strength, summary.confidence, len(signals), evidence_count,
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
# Prometheus metrics
|
|
AGGREGATION_WINDOWS_COMPUTED.labels(window=window).inc()
|
|
AGGREGATION_SIGNALS_PROCESSED.labels(window=window).inc(len(signals))
|
|
AGGREGATION_CONTRADICTION_SCORE.observe(summary.contradiction_score)
|
|
AGGREGATION_DURATION.labels(window=window).observe(time.monotonic() - _agg_start)
|
|
|
|
return summary
|
|
|
|
|
|
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
# Aggregate all windows for a single ticker
|
|
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
|
|
|
|
async def aggregate_company(
|
|
pool: asyncpg.Pool,
|
|
ticker: str,
|
|
reference_time: datetime | None = None,
|
|
config: AggregationConfig | None = None,
|
|
) -> list[TrendSummary]:
|
|
"""Compute trend summaries for all configured windows for a ticker."""
|
|
cfg = config or AggregationConfig()
|
|
if reference_time is None:
|
|
reference_time = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
|
|
|
|
summaries: list[TrendSummary] = []
|
|
for window in cfg.effective_windows():
|
|
summary = await aggregate_company_window(
|
|
pool, ticker, window, reference_time, cfg,
|
|
)
|
|
summaries.append(summary)
|
|
|
|
return summaries
|