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486 Commits

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Celes Renata 18f857e1a3 feat: add live-math stage with dedicated paper trading account
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New ArgoCD stage 'stonks-live-math' running the dual-pipeline signal
engine against a separate Alpaca paper account for production validation.

- Namespace: stonks-live-math
- Database: stonks_live_math (Redis DB 3)
- Broker: PK64RS7NH24XPBI3IDEU3BB72Y (paper-api.alpaca.markets)
- Ingress: stonks-math-*.celestium.life
- Deploys alongside existing live stage (same image tag)
2026-05-02 08:19:47 +00:00
Celes Renata 61bcb5aa57 ci: add signal-engine image build to Woodpecker pipeline
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2026-05-02 07:43:59 +00:00
Celes Renata f468e30af0 feat: implement dual-pipeline signal engine service
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New service at services/signal_engine/ implementing concurrent heuristic
(deterministic scoring) and probabilistic (Bayesian inference) pipelines
that evaluate technical signals across 6 timeframes (M30-M) and produce
independent BUY/WATCH/SKIP verdicts per ticker per evaluation tick.

Components:
- Input Normalizer: multi-source data assembly with sentinel fallbacks
- Signal Library: Fibonacci, MA Stack, RSI, Cup & Handle, Elliott Wave
- Multi-Timeframe Confluence Engine: weighted scoring with D/W/M anchors
- Hard Filter Engine: macro_bias, valuation, earnings proximity gating
- Heuristic Pipeline: S_total scoring with confidence-gated verdicts
- Probabilistic Pipeline: Bayesian log-odds with regime priors, entropy
  gating, EV_R calculation, and signal correlation penalty
- Exit Engine: stop-loss, targets, trailing ATR-based stops
- Delta Analyzer: pipeline agreement tracking with rolling Redis metrics
- Output Formatter: SignalOutput contract + Recommendation schema mapping
- Worker orchestrator: concurrent pipelines with failure isolation
- Main entry point: queue polling with fail-safe config loading

Infrastructure:
- Migration 039: signal_engine_outputs table with 3 indexes
- Helm chart: signalEngine service entry (processing tier)
- Redis key: QUEUE_SIGNAL_ENGINE constant

Tests: 390 tests (unit + property-based) covering all components
Config: dual_pipeline_enabled=false by default (safe rollout)
2026-05-02 07:32:26 +00:00
Celes Renata 7e2343ec2c feat: add Reports page and detail view to frontend
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- Reports list page with type filter (daily/weekly)
- Report detail page with all sections: P&L, recommendation accuracy,
  position performance table, risk metrics, model quality windows
- Executive summary card, validation warnings display
- Nav item under Trading group
- Routes: /reports and /reports/:id
2026-05-02 00:27:34 +00:00
Celes Renata 3a8c6f6c80 fix: add CACHE_BUST ARG to Dockerfile + build args to force fresh COPY layers per commit
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2026-05-01 23:23:49 +00:00
Celes Renata 139fbd6342 fix: add no_cache to all Woodpecker service builds to prevent stale COPY layers
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2026-05-01 23:11:21 +00:00
Celes Renata 63b62c5e9f chore: RUN echo cache-bust to force buildx layer invalidation
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2026-05-01 22:57:29 +00:00
Celes Renata 3acfdfd11f chore: move cache-bust before COPY to invalidate buildx layer cache
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2026-05-01 22:48:12 +00:00
Celes Renata ab212db8be chore: bust Docker buildx cache for services/ layer
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2026-05-01 22:39:38 +00:00
Celes Renata 7102358f51 chore: retrigger CI (bust Docker buildx cache for services/ layer)
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2026-05-01 22:32:23 +00:00
Celes Renata bc077bfcc8 feat: trading feedback engine — periodic performance reports with AI summarization
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- Migration 038: trading_reports table + report-summarizer agent seed
- 6 reporting modules: models, collector, sections, validator, summarizer, generator
- API endpoints: GET /api/reports (paginated, filterable), GET /api/reports/{id}
- Frontend hooks: useReports, useReport with TanStack Query
- Scheduler: daily (after 16:30 ET) and weekly (Saturday) report triggers
- Redis queue consumer for async report generation with retry/dedup
- 5 property-based tests (chunking, serialization, validation, accuracy, deltas)
- 109 unit/integration tests across all modules
- 6 frontend hook tests with MSW mocks
2026-05-01 22:13:09 +00:00
Celes Renata 376fcb4bb4 feat: add 12 integrity check saved queries for SQL Explorer (migration 037)
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Prefixed with ⚕ for easy identification. Checks: duplicate snapshots,
orphaned links, evidence count mismatches, contribution score sums,
canonical key consistency, out-of-range values, unmatched snapshots,
zero evidence rate, duplicate count mismatches, missing prices,
outcome integrity, and pipeline health summary.
2026-05-01 19:20:56 +00:00
Celes Renata cc21fd9e8f feat: add 15 validation saved queries for SQL Explorer (migration 036)
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Prediction overview, confidence distribution, evidence dedup quality,
source/catalyst breakdown, win rate by ticker/horizon, model quality
timeline, quality gate status, high-duplicate predictions, excess vs SPY.
2026-05-01 19:15:54 +00:00
Celes Renata affb65d7f4 fix: point VLLM_BASE_URL to Ollama (10.1.1.12:2701) and update model name
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vLLM service on 192.168.42.254:8000 was down causing extraction failures.
Also updated ai_agents table to use ollama provider directly.
2026-05-01 18:56:55 +00:00
Celes Renata 32535540fe feat: add no-premature-simplification rule to steering docs
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2026-05-01 04:32:05 +00:00
Celes Renata 751cce0509 feat: add documentation maintenance rules to steering, update migration number to 036
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2026-05-01 04:29:52 +00:00
Celes Renata 0732894414 fix: widen horizon/mode columns in prediction_snapshots to VARCHAR(50)
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time_horizon values like 'position_30d_90d (proj:30d)' exceed VARCHAR(20)
2026-05-01 04:27:19 +00:00
Celes Renata d9110d03a6 fix: use di.document_id instead of dir.document_id in evidence query
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document_impact_records has intelligence_id, not document_id.
The document_id lives on document_intelligence.
2026-05-01 04:06:55 +00:00
Celes Renata 76f6bd5677 fix: quote reserved keyword 'window' in prediction_snapshots SQL
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2026-05-01 03:40:48 +00:00
Celes Renata 32d290bea7 fix: ruff lint — sort imports, remove unused GateThresholdResult import
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2026-05-01 03:08:21 +00:00
Celes Renata 7fcc8a6c07 feat: model validation, calibration, and signal quality layer
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- Migration 035: prediction_snapshots, prediction_outcomes, signal_evidence_links, model_metric_snapshots tables + SQL views
- Prediction snapshot writer with canonical evidence keys, duplicate detection, contribution scores
- Outcome evaluator across 5 horizons (1h, 6h, 1d, 7d, 30d)
- Metrics engine: ECE, Brier score, IC, Rank IC, benchmark comparison
- Attribution engine: per-source, per-catalyst, per-layer performance
- Calibration engine: Bayesian shrinkage source reliability
- Quality gate for live trading eligibility with configurable thresholds
- 7 new /api/validation/* endpoints
- Upgraded OpsModel dashboard with validation tab
- Enhanced recommendation display with calibration context
- Backtest replay validation mode
- 86 Python tests (unit + property-based), 179 frontend tests passing
2026-05-01 03:04:58 +00:00
Celes Renata 5d2ffd9163 fix: vertical market markers need yAxisId + move legend below date labels
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- Add yAxisId='left' to vertical ReferenceLine (required by Recharts)
- Increase bottom margin from 40 to 70 for date label + legend space
- Legend uses verticalAlign='bottom' with 24px top padding
2026-04-30 23:31:55 +00:00
Celes Renata 6169efdc89 fix: copy scripts/ into Docker image + graceful backfill fallback
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- Dockerfile now copies scripts/ directory into /app/scripts/
- Init container uses sh -c with fallback so missing script
  doesn't crash the pod (graceful degradation until image rebuilds)
2026-04-30 23:18:43 +00:00
Celes Renata c42f2223d8 fix: move backfill logic to standalone script (fixes YAML parse error)
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Inline Python with f-strings and colons broke Helm YAML parsing.
Moved to scripts/backfill_market_data.py and call it directly
from the init container command.
2026-04-30 23:01:20 +00:00
Celes Renata 1f08820f11 feat: fullscreen chart expand + market open/close vertical markers
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- Click 'Expand' button to view the trend chart fullscreen
- Press Escape or click outside to close
- Fullscreen uses full viewport height for better readability
- Green dashed vertical lines at 9:30 AM ET (market open)
- Red dashed vertical lines at 4:00 PM ET (market close)
- Markers only shown on intraday and 1d windows (hidden on 7d+)
- Chart content extracted into shared function to avoid duplication
2026-04-30 22:44:00 +00:00
Celes Renata 2f2ea65fb4 fix: keep Alpaca price as primary (includes after-hours), add polygon_price field
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Alpaca's current_price reflects extended hours trading which is more
current than Polygon's regular session close. Keep it as the display
price. Add polygon_price as a reference field in the API response.
2026-04-30 22:35:22 +00:00
Celes Renata 9a60ce127b fix: overlay Polygon prices on positions instead of stale Alpaca prices
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Alpaca paper trading returns inaccurate current_price values.
The positions endpoint now uses the latest Polygon close from
market_snapshots and recomputes unrealized P&L from that.
2026-04-30 22:32:21 +00:00
Celes Renata 414f476620 fix: auto-backfill market data on startup + fix trading dedup bug
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1. Add backfill-market-data init container to scheduler deployment.
   On vanilla start (< 50 bars in market_snapshots), fetches 90 days
   of daily OHLCV from Polygon directly via asyncpg + httpx.

2. Fix trading engine dedup key placement. Previously the Redis dedup
   key was set BEFORE evaluate_recommendation(), so recs skipped as
   outside_trading_window were permanently deduped and never retried
   when the market opened. Now the dedup key is only set AFTER the
   decision for non-retryable outcomes (act, confidence_too_low, etc).
   outside_trading_window skips are retryable.
2026-04-30 14:08:54 +00:00
Celes Renata a5f2bcde55 fix: set MARKET_DATA_BASE_URL to polygon in base values.yaml
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2026-04-30 07:20:13 +00:00
Celes Renata 34ffdad00c fix: wait for scheduler migrations after factory reset scale-up
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After scale_up, restart the scheduler and wait for it to be ready
before other services start. The scheduler's init containers run
migrations, so this ensures tables exist before ingestion/extractor
pods try to query them.
2026-04-30 07:01:01 +00:00
Celes Renata 601b85764b fix: mount stonks-market-secrets on query-api for backfill endpoint
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2026-04-30 06:33:26 +00:00
Celes Renata 51b6f3d34a ci: trigger rebuild
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2026-04-30 06:24:05 +00:00
Celes Renata bddaf44ffc feat: 90-day price range Y-axis scaling with breakthrough annotations
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Backend:
- GET /api/market/prices/{ticker} now returns { bars, range_90d }
  with 90-day low/high computed from market_snapshots
- POST /api/market/backfill/{ticker} fetches 90 days of daily bars
  from Polygon and inserts missing bars into market_snapshots
- POST /api/market/backfill-all does the same for all active tickers

Frontend:
- Right Y-axis domain scaled to 90-day min/max (with 3% padding)
- Green dashed reference line at 90-day high
- Red dashed reference line at 90-day low
- Labels show exact price on each reference line
- Default limit bumped to 200 bars
2026-04-30 06:09:05 +00:00
Celes Renata 5209cc522e feat: enhanced paper trading reset with capital and reserve controls
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- Add initial capital input (toggle between broker balance or custom amount)
- Add reserve/active pool split slider (0-50%, default 20%)
- Backend accepts reserve_pct in reset request body
- Note in UI that Alpaca balance reset requires Alpaca dashboard
- Confirmation dialog shows exact capital and split being applied
2026-04-30 05:49:38 +00:00
Celes Renata fa18b1a7c2 fix: populate broker and market API secrets in base values.yaml
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ArgoCD was syncing empty secrets back over manual patches.
Credentials now match stonks-paper (same Alpaca paper + Polygon keys).
2026-04-30 05:05:43 +00:00
Celes Renata 4b254adad2 fix: scale ingestion and extractor to 1 replica in prod
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2026-04-30 05:04:20 +00:00
Celes Renata af2e554edd fix: switch ai_agents seed from vllm to ollama qwen3.5:9b-fast
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Live DB already updated via direct SQL. This ensures future
DB rebuilds and new deployments use ollama as the default provider.
2026-04-30 04:46:04 +00:00
Celes Renata facce5dbb5 fix: add TTL and backoffLimit to market-hours-check jobs
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Prevents accumulation of completed/failed verification jobs.
- ttlSecondsAfterFinished: 3600 (auto-cleanup after 1h)
- backoffLimit: 0 (no retries on intentional market-hours failure)
2026-04-30 04:33:50 +00:00
Celes Renata 2f2c0d24f6 fix: remove unused columns constant (TS6133)
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v0.1.0
2026-04-30 03:21:32 +00:00
Celes Renata 861423c1e3 feat: make ticker clickable on positions page — links to company detail
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Ticker column now links to /companies/{id} using a ticker→company ID
lookup. Falls back to plain text if company not found.
2026-04-30 03:15:22 +00:00
Celes Renata 13f863ef30 feat: fetch 15-minute bars instead of hourly for intraday prices
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Changed intraday_bars default from 1-hour bars to 15-minute bars.
This gives ~26 price points per trading day per ticker (6.5h market
× 4 bars/hour) instead of ~7 hourly bars. Limit raised to 100 to
accommodate the higher bar count.
2026-04-29 23:01:11 +00:00
Celes Renata 2538da3f1e fix: switch market data sources from prev_bars to intraday_bars
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The market_api sources were configured with endpoint='prev_bars' which
only fetches a single previous-day bar per ticker. Changed to
'intraday_bars' which fetches hourly bars for today from Polygon's
/v2/aggs/ticker/{ticker}/range/1/hour/{today}/{today} endpoint.

Updated: seed script, beta DB (50 sources), production DB (50 sources).
This gives ~7-8 hourly price bars per trading day per ticker instead
of 1 daily bar.
2026-04-29 22:07:47 +00:00
Celes Renata fa4ad6b15a fix: widen price matching tolerance for sparse market data
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Only ~9 price bars per ticker (Polygon returns daily bars, not
intraday). Widened gap tolerance to 6h for intraday, 12h for 1d,
etc. Also skip time-range filtering when price data is sparse
(≤20 bars) to avoid showing no prices at all.
2026-04-29 22:02:23 +00:00
Celes Renata 5109c85a3e fix: remove unused 'hour' variable (TS6133)
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2026-04-29 21:48:18 +00:00
Celes Renata 9975c2098b fix: limit X-axis to 8 ticks with date bold + time at angle
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Was showing every data point timestamp. Now:
- Recharts generates max 8 evenly-spaced ticks
- Each tick shows 'Apr 29' in bold white + '2 PM' in gray
- All labels at -35° angle to avoid overlap
- Simplified tick component (no hour-boundary filtering needed)
2026-04-29 21:43:44 +00:00
Celes Renata e976363259 ci: retrigger build
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2026-04-29 21:34:34 +00:00
Celes Renata b6e2718007 feat: proper time-based X-axis with angled hour labels and bold dates
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Replaced string-based X-axis with numeric timestamp axis:
- Custom ChartXTick component renders hour marks at -35° angle
- New day boundaries shown in bold (e.g., 'Apr 29')
- Hour marks shown as '9:00 AM', '10:00 AM' etc.
- Tooltip shows full date+time on hover
- Direction timeline uses formatted timestamps
- Bottom margin increased to accommodate angled labels
2026-04-29 21:26:11 +00:00
Celes Renata cb3eb230d6 fix: fetch trend history per-window and run aggregation 24/7
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Two fixes for missing intraday data:

1. Frontend: lifted selectedWindow state to page level so useTrendHistory
   passes window param to the API. Previously fetched all windows with
   limit=500 which exhausted the limit before reaching recent intraday
   data. Now fetches only the selected window's data.

2. Scheduler: removed market-hours-only restriction from periodic
   aggregation. Runs every 15 minutes 24/7 so intraday data is always
   populated for backtesting regardless of market state.
2026-04-29 21:11:46 +00:00
Celes Renata 963a5c462c feat: syntax-highlight decision trace JSON on order detail page
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Add lightweight JSON highlighter for the decision trace panel:
- Keys: cyan
- Strings: green
- Numbers: yellow
- Booleans: purple
- Null: red
- Structural chars: gray

SQL explorer already uses Monaco with SQL highlighting — no changes needed there.
2026-04-29 19:33:24 +00:00
Celes Renata 82892b7a3e feat: multi-distro support in deploy-docker.sh
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Step 0 now detects the OS and package manager, supporting:
- Debian/Ubuntu (apt)
- RHEL/Rocky/Fedora/CentOS (dnf/yum)
- Arch Linux (pacman)
- openSUSE (zypper)
- WSL (uses host Windows NVIDIA driver, skips driver install)

Handles Docker CE install, NVIDIA driver, NVIDIA Container Toolkit,
and firewall (firewalld + ufw) across all supported distros.
2026-04-29 18:59:40 +00:00