stonks-oracle

Files

T

Celes Renata 4e010bc048 feat: signal math upgrade — probabilistic, regime-aware scoring pipeline

Implement full probabilistic signal processing pipeline gated behind
probabilistic_scoring_enabled feature flag in risk_configs:

- Bayesian log-likelihood accumulator with Beta posterior and entropy
- Regime detector (trend-following, panic, mean-reversion, uncertainty)
- Source accuracy tracker with per-source historical prediction accuracy
- Sigmoid confidence gate replacing binary gate
- Information gain surprise weighting for rare events
- Adaptive recency decay with event-specific half-lives
- Regime multiplier replacing market context multiplier
- Weighted disagreement entropy for contradiction detection
- Multiplicative macro exposure with conditional integration
- Graph-distance attenuated competitive signal propagation
- Exponentially weighted momentum with volatility scaling
- Expected value recommendation gate

All changes backward-compatible: flag=false preserves exact current behavior.
New outputs stored in existing JSONB columns (no schema changes except
source_accuracy table via migration 034).

Tests: 26 property-based tests (14 correctness properties), 99 unit tests,
1789 total tests passing with zero regressions.

2026-04-29 11:41:48 +00:00

adapters

fix: pipeline stop now halts all workers and flushes queues

2026-04-29 07:59:35 +00:00

aggregation

feat: signal math upgrade — probabilistic, regime-aware scoring pipeline

2026-04-29 11:41:48 +00:00

api

fix: pipeline stop now halts all workers and flushes queues

2026-04-29 07:59:35 +00:00

extractor

fix: pipeline stop now halts all workers and flushes queues