751cce0509cfa97636540bb3cff579694fd7594e
115 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celes Renata
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0732894414 |
fix: widen horizon/mode columns in prediction_snapshots to VARCHAR(50)
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time_horizon values like 'position_30d_90d (proj:30d)' exceed VARCHAR(20) |
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Celes Renata
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76f6bd5677 |
fix: quote reserved keyword 'window' in prediction_snapshots SQL
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Celes Renata
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7fcc8a6c07 |
feat: model validation, calibration, and signal quality layer
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- Migration 035: prediction_snapshots, prediction_outcomes, signal_evidence_links, model_metric_snapshots tables + SQL views - Prediction snapshot writer with canonical evidence keys, duplicate detection, contribution scores - Outcome evaluator across 5 horizons (1h, 6h, 1d, 7d, 30d) - Metrics engine: ECE, Brier score, IC, Rank IC, benchmark comparison - Attribution engine: per-source, per-catalyst, per-layer performance - Calibration engine: Bayesian shrinkage source reliability - Quality gate for live trading eligibility with configurable thresholds - 7 new /api/validation/* endpoints - Upgraded OpsModel dashboard with validation tab - Enhanced recommendation display with calibration context - Backtest replay validation mode - 86 Python tests (unit + property-based), 179 frontend tests passing |
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Celes Renata
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6169efdc89 |
fix: copy scripts/ into Docker image + graceful backfill fallback
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- Dockerfile now copies scripts/ directory into /app/scripts/ - Init container uses sh -c with fallback so missing script doesn't crash the pod (graceful degradation until image rebuilds) |
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Celes Renata
|
c42f2223d8 |
fix: move backfill logic to standalone script (fixes YAML parse error)
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Inline Python with f-strings and colons broke Helm YAML parsing. Moved to scripts/backfill_market_data.py and call it directly from the init container command. |
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Celes Renata
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414f476620 |
fix: auto-backfill market data on startup + fix trading dedup bug
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1. Add backfill-market-data init container to scheduler deployment. On vanilla start (< 50 bars in market_snapshots), fetches 90 days of daily OHLCV from Polygon directly via asyncpg + httpx. 2. Fix trading engine dedup key placement. Previously the Redis dedup key was set BEFORE evaluate_recommendation(), so recs skipped as outside_trading_window were permanently deduped and never retried when the market opened. Now the dedup key is only set AFTER the decision for non-retryable outcomes (act, confidence_too_low, etc). outside_trading_window skips are retryable. |
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Celes Renata
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a5f2bcde55 |
fix: set MARKET_DATA_BASE_URL to polygon in base values.yaml
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Celes Renata
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601b85764b |
fix: mount stonks-market-secrets on query-api for backfill endpoint
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Celes Renata
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fa18b1a7c2 |
fix: populate broker and market API secrets in base values.yaml
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ArgoCD was syncing empty secrets back over manual patches. Credentials now match stonks-paper (same Alpaca paper + Polygon keys). |
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Celes Renata
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4b254adad2 |
fix: scale ingestion and extractor to 1 replica in prod
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Celes Renata
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af2e554edd |
fix: switch ai_agents seed from vllm to ollama qwen3.5:9b-fast
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Live DB already updated via direct SQL. This ensures future DB rebuilds and new deployments use ollama as the default provider. |
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Celes Renata
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0665cef7e3 |
fix: set TZ=America/Los_Angeles in Helm config for all pods
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Containers default to UTC. The host is PDT but pods don't inherit the host timezone. Adding TZ to the ConfigMap ensures all services log and compute timestamps in Pacific time. |
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Celes Renata
|
4e010bc048 |
feat: signal math upgrade — probabilistic, regime-aware scoring pipeline
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Implement full probabilistic signal processing pipeline gated behind probabilistic_scoring_enabled feature flag in risk_configs: - Bayesian log-likelihood accumulator with Beta posterior and entropy - Regime detector (trend-following, panic, mean-reversion, uncertainty) - Source accuracy tracker with per-source historical prediction accuracy - Sigmoid confidence gate replacing binary gate - Information gain surprise weighting for rare events - Adaptive recency decay with event-specific half-lives - Regime multiplier replacing market context multiplier - Weighted disagreement entropy for contradiction detection - Multiplicative macro exposure with conditional integration - Graph-distance attenuated competitive signal propagation - Exponentially weighted momentum with volatility scaling - Expected value recommendation gate All changes backward-compatible: flag=false preserves exact current behavior. New outputs stored in existing JSONB columns (no schema changes except source_accuracy table via migration 034). Tests: 26 property-based tests (14 correctness properties), 99 unit tests, 1789 total tests passing with zero regressions. |
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Celes Renata
|
cfcfd655e7 |
fix: reduce max_tokens to 2048 to fit 8192 context window
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Celes Renata
|
aaf8cee927 |
feat: scale extractor to 8 replicas
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Celes Renata
|
f264e924f0 |
fix: thesis rewriter now routes to vLLM when provider is vllm
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- thesis_llm.py: add _call_vllm_thesis() using /v1/chat/completions - thesis_llm.py: check resolved model_provider and route accordingly - values.yaml: set OLLAMA_BASE_URL to http://10.1.1.12:2701 |
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Celes Renata
|
a36702e5f3 |
fix: restore REDIS_PASSWORD and MINIO credentials
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Celes Renata
|
01d77c153d |
fix: set POSTGRES_PASSWORD in core secrets
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Celes Renata
|
8d227b62f6 |
scale extractor to 4 replicas
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Celes Renata
|
b38fb24f14 |
fix: ensure production uses DB-configured model/provider from UI
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- Migration 026: update seed defaults from ollama to vllm/AxionML - Migration 031: fix existing rows still on old ollama defaults - Helm values: set OLLAMA_BASE_URL to cluster ollama endpoint (was empty) - Extractor: guard against switching to ollama when base_url is empty - OllamaClient: validate base_url on construction to fail fast |
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Celes Renata
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23f2134754 |
fix: stop migrations from resetting ai_agents model_name, default to vllm/AxionML/Qwen3.5-9B-NVFP4
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Celes Renata
|
3b22f5e1fc |
feat: seed default risk_configs with macro and competitive layers enabled
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Celes Renata
|
e360b66c3e |
fix: beta trading pipeline — max_tokens default, approval re-enqueue, credentials
- Migration 031: change ai_agents/agent_variants max_tokens default from 32768 to 4096 (32768 exceeds vLLM context window, causing HTTP 400 on every extraction) - API: re-enqueue approved orders to broker queue — previously approved orders sat in DB with nothing to execute them - values-beta: enable TRADING_ENABLED, update Alpaca paper keys |
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Celes Renata
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4bee7a7874 | fix: update vLLM model to AxionML/Qwen3.5-9B-NVFP4 | ||
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Celes Renata
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6909ac5e50 | feat: add vLLM config to beta values overlay | ||
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Celes Renata
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117b693b19 |
feat: add remote vLLM support with provider abstraction layer
- LLMClient Protocol for provider-agnostic inference - VLLMClient for OpenAI-compatible /v1/chat/completions API - LLM client factory with provider routing (ollama/vllm) - VLLMConfig with VLLM_* environment variable loading - Updated extractor worker with health check and provider switching - Updated event classifier to use LLMClient protocol - Helm values for vLLM configuration - 18 unit tests + 6 property-based tests - Full backward compatibility preserved |
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Celes Renata
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5dcbd286e8 | fix: update beta Alpaca broker credentials | ||
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Celes Renata
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d407888caa | feat: set beta Ollama model to qwen3.6 | ||
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Celes Renata
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abdf639925 | feat: isolate beta on stonks_beta database, stop sharing stonks_paper | ||
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Celes Renata
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a99aaa29ca | feat: point beta Ollama to 192.168.42.254:11434 | ||
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Celes Renata
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08b93ad119 | fix: add beta Alpaca broker credentials for separate paper account | ||
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Celes Renata
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19f39301d3 | fix: skip superset/trino ingress when hostname is empty (fixes Kargo beta promotion) | ||
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Celes Renata
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9275351279 |
fix: beta stage uses paper DB to resolve permission denied errors
Beta was pointing at stonks_beta DB where tables were owned by postgres superuser, causing permission denied for the stonks app user. Switch to sharing stonks_paper DB/user (already has proper grants). DEPLOY_STAGE=beta still isolates Redis keys and MinIO buckets. Added market data API key so beta can test ingestion when pipeline is toggled ON. |
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Celes Renata
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5d0635a291 |
feat: beta deploys all services with pipeline toggle defaulting to OFF
- pipelineEnabled: true in beta so all pods run (Kargo happy) - PIPELINE_DEFAULT_OFF=true in beta config — scheduler initializes the Redis toggle to OFF on first boot - Shared Ollama (10.1.1.12:2701) between beta and paper - Flip pipeline ON from the UI when testing, OFF when done - Optimistic UI update for the toggle button |
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Celes Renata
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6703b20b59 |
fix: wait for infra pods to exist before checking readiness
kubectl wait fails immediately with 'no matching resources found' if pods haven't been created yet. Added a poll loop to wait for all 3 infra pods (postgres, redis, minio) to exist before running wait. |
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Celes Renata
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c166aafc40 |
fix: reduce integration test timeout to 5 minutes
Tests complete in ~7s. The 10-minute timeout was causing unnecessary wait time on failures. Reduced Job activeDeadlineSeconds and kubectl wait timeout to 300s. |
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Celes Renata
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be526ae614 |
feat: pipeline on/off toggle with per-stage Helm control
- Added pipelineEnabled flag to Helm values (default: true) - Worker services (scheduler, ingestion, parser, extractor, aggregation, recommendation, broker-adapter, lake-publisher) scale to 0 when disabled - API services always run regardless of toggle - Redis-based runtime toggle: POST /api/ops/pipeline/toggle - Scheduler checks the flag before each cycle - Frontend: green/red Pipeline ON/OFF button on the pipeline page - Beta defaults to pipelineEnabled: false - Base values.yaml: blanked external URLs (Ollama, Polygon, Alpaca) so stages only connect to what they explicitly configure |
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Celes Renata
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a19ed086fe |
fix: blank external URLs in base values, set only in stage overrides
Base values.yaml now has empty OLLAMA_BASE_URL, MARKET_DATA_BASE_URL, and BROKER_PROVIDER. Only paper (and eventually live) set the real URLs. Beta inherits empty defaults so it can't reach external services. |
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Celes Renata
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d8fce71178 |
fix: disable pipeline workers and blank API keys in beta stage
Beta is for API testing only. Scale scheduler, ingestion, parser, extractor, aggregation, recommendation, broker-adapter, and lake-publisher to 0 replicas. Blank out Polygon and Alpaca keys. Infra secrets (postgres, redis, minio) kept so API services work. |
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Celes Renata
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7eab50fda9 |
fix: disable all external connections and pipeline workers in beta
Beta is for API testing only. Blanked out Polygon/Alpaca/Ollama credentials, set OLLAMA_BASE_URL to localhost:99999, and scaled scheduler/ingestion/parser/extractor/aggregation/recommendation/ broker-adapter/lake-publisher to 0 replicas. |
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Celes Renata
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20faa8e20d |
fix: bake secrets into values-paper.yaml and auto-seed on empty DB
- All paper stage credentials now in values-paper.yaml so ArgoCD renders them correctly on every sync (no more empty secrets) - Added seed-if-empty init container to scheduler: runs the seed script if the companies table is empty after migrations |
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Celes Renata
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740ddc1c54 | fix: revert extractor to 1 replica (single GPU bottleneck) | ||
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Celes Renata
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f1f0b7e34c |
fix: scale extractor to 3 replicas in paper stage
The extraction queue had 3000+ SEC filings backed up with a single extractor pod processing them at 10-115s each. Ollama handles concurrent requests so multiple extractor pods can share the GPU. |
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Celes Renata
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5289f0f195 |
fix: use kubectl wait for job completion detection in inttest pipeline
The polling loop checked conditions[0].type which missed the Complete condition when it wasn't at index 0. Switch to kubectl wait --for=condition=complete which handles condition matching reliably. |
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Celes Renata
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422326bf83 |
fix: inttest pipeline timeout and busybox grep compatibility
- Poll job status instead of kubectl wait (catches Failed condition immediately instead of waiting 600s for Complete that never comes) - Replace grep -oP (Perl regex) with POSIX grep -o (BusyBox compat) |
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Celes Renata
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f3aac0ac3d | fix: superset config uses POSTGRES_DB and REDIS_DB env vars for stage isolation | ||
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Celes Renata
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0f2f0460a6 | fix: dedicated scheduler Dockerfile with psql for migrations, remove Python splitter | ||
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Celes Renata
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48fed18078 | feat: per-stage PostgreSQL users for database isolation (stonks_beta, stonks_paper) | ||
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Celes Renata
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47f10cd3cf | fix: use Python asyncpg migration runner instead of psql, remove postgresql-client from image | ||
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Celes Renata
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021efba294 | feat: auto-run migrations via psql init container on scheduler startup |