4e010bc048
feat: signal math upgrade — probabilistic, regime-aware scoring pipeline
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Implement full probabilistic signal processing pipeline gated behind
probabilistic_scoring_enabled feature flag in risk_configs:
- Bayesian log-likelihood accumulator with Beta posterior and entropy
- Regime detector (trend-following, panic, mean-reversion, uncertainty)
- Source accuracy tracker with per-source historical prediction accuracy
- Sigmoid confidence gate replacing binary gate
- Information gain surprise weighting for rare events
- Adaptive recency decay with event-specific half-lives
- Regime multiplier replacing market context multiplier
- Weighted disagreement entropy for contradiction detection
- Multiplicative macro exposure with conditional integration
- Graph-distance attenuated competitive signal propagation
- Exponentially weighted momentum with volatility scaling
- Expected value recommendation gate
All changes backward-compatible: flag=false preserves exact current behavior.
New outputs stored in existing JSONB columns (no schema changes except
source_accuracy table via migration 034).
Tests: 26 property-based tests (14 correctness properties), 99 unit tests,
1789 total tests passing with zero regressions.
2026-04-29 11:41:48 +00:00
8c3c1aab43
fix: pipeline stop now halts all workers and flushes queues
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Workers (ingestion, parser, extractor, aggregation, recommendation,
broker, lake-publisher) now check the pipeline:enabled Redis flag on
each loop iteration and sleep when disabled.
The toggle endpoint flushes all pipeline queues on disable so queued
jobs don't resume when workers eventually check. Broker/trading queues
are excluded from flush to avoid dropping in-flight orders.
2026-04-29 07:59:35 +00:00
49bff9de50
fix: delete stale trend_evidence before inserting to prevent duplicate accumulation
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2026-04-28 19:45:15 +00:00
82da8af02b
fix: dedup recommendation queue at aggregation level — prevent duplicate ticker+window flooding
2026-04-17 22:11:59 +00:00
5efccb1e03
fix: deduplicate evidence refs in trend summaries
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Backend: assemble_trend_with_evidence now deduplicates document IDs
via dict.fromkeys() (the rollup code already did this, but the base
assembly didn't — same doc could appear multiple times from different
intelligence extractions).
Frontend: Trends.tsx deduplicates via Set before rendering as a safety
net for existing data already stored with duplicates.
2026-04-17 07:25:32 +00:00
e21f162e48
fix: dampen agreement factor by sample size in trend confidence to prevent low-evidence inflation
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Agreement of 1-2 signals was inflating confidence to paper-eligible
levels (0.575) even with low credibility sources. Added log2-based
dampener that scales agreement contribution by unique source count,
saturating at n=7. Single signals now cap at 0.39 confidence,
2 signals at 0.49 — both correctly below paper threshold (0.50).
2026-04-17 03:41:39 +00:00
7c589353f8
fix: blank company charts + competitor GUIDs instead of tickers
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Trend charts blank:
- trend_windows uses upsert (1 row per ticker/window), so charts had
at most 1 data point. Added trend_history table (migration 024) that
appends every snapshot. New /api/trends/history endpoint serves the
time series. Frontend now uses useTrendHistory for charts and
useTrends for the latest summary card.
Competitor GUIDs:
- list_competitors query returned raw company_b_id UUIDs without
joining companies table. Added LEFT JOIN with CASE to resolve the
other company's ticker and legal_name. Updated Pydantic model to
include enriched fields. Frontend fallback changed from truncated
UUID to ticker/legal_name/Unknown.
2026-04-17 00:42:55 +00:00
18eb150c75
fix: confidence formula now uses unique doc count + signal agreement instead of raw signal count — prevents 99.9% inflation
2026-04-16 23:48:05 +00:00
6bab199159
fix: trend_windows now upserts instead of accumulating (7.5GB→4MB), add competitive signal retention cleanup
2026-04-16 14:32:24 +00:00
5cc64498c0
fix: skip already-propagated docs in aggregation, limit to last hour + 10 docs instead of 50
2026-04-16 09:35:11 +00:00
f0887afd9b
fix: cap competitive signals to 500 most recent per window to prevent 67k row aggregation bottleneck
2026-04-16 09:24:31 +00:00
e1792e06b9
fix: skip non-UUID pattern signal IDs in evidence persistence
2026-04-14 20:18:50 +00:00
d37a5732d0
fix: use timedelta instead of string for interval query params
2026-04-14 20:10:38 +00:00
c438d0d60a
fix: competitor lookup uses ticker join instead of UUID comparison
2026-04-14 20:04:56 +00:00
d8ea58104c
fix: lint errors (import sorting, unused vars)
2026-04-14 19:48:19 +00:00
f7a11d14ea
feat: competitive intelligence & historical pattern matching layer
2026-04-14 19:42:48 +00:00
181ed2b6cd
phase 17: quote reserved word 'window' in aggregation SQL INSERT
2026-04-12 03:38:45 -07:00
019eaa40d7
phase 17: fix datetime JSON serialization in aggregation worker market_context
2026-04-12 03:31:32 -07:00
012b973bb7
phase 17: wire extractor→aggregation→recommendation queue chain, add company_id_map to extractor
2026-04-12 03:16:27 -07:00
109440c91e
phase 15: fix ruff lint errors across services
2026-04-11 12:10:01 -07:00
ce10afa034
phase 14-15: docker build validation and helm deployment
2026-04-11 11:59:45 -07:00
ebea70573b
phase 0+1: project scaffold, k8s manifests, CI pipeline, steering, hooks, tests
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- Repository structure for all services, infra, lakehouse, dashboards
- K8s manifests targeting stonks-oracle namespace with GHCR images
- Ingress via Traefik with ca-issuer TLS for internal services
- ConfigMap wired to existing cluster services (pg, redis, minio, ollama)
- GitHub Actions workflow for lint, test, multi-service container builds
- Dockerfile with build-arg CMD per service
- Makefile for local build/push/deploy
- Steering rules for TDD workflow, K8s conventions, project context
- Agent hooks for lint-on-save, test-on-save, k8s-validate, phase-commit
- Ruff linter config, all lint issues fixed
- 14 passing tests for schemas, config, redis keys
- PostgreSQL migrations, Trino catalogs, Superset config, MinIO lifecycle
2026-04-11 03:25:08 -07:00
Celes Renata